End Citizens United, a Democratic organization founded on March 1, 2015 which focuses on the reform of the campaign finance methodology, recently conducted a poll which shows Beto O’Rourke trailing Ted Cruz. Said trail, however, is considerably short. The margin by which Ted Cruz leads the race is a narrow 8 percent, 45 to 37.
According to the Cruz campaign, in an announcement made at the beginning of the year, the Texas senator was the leader in the polls by a margin of 18 percent. A survey conducted by Google, around the same time, showed a lead of only 14 percent. Not as lengthy a lead as End Citizens United shows, but a lead nonetheless. Despite Ted Cruz’s lead, however, it is apparent that Beto O’Rourke’s chances of victory have risen fast is not too long a frame of time.
It is important to be clear on the fact that a numbers lead, such as the one End Citizens United shows, will not necessarily lead to victory. In Ted Cruz’s case, one of his obstacles appears to be himself. Of all the likely voters in Texas, 61 percent, a staggering amount, are not sufficiently aware of Beto O’Rourke himself or his political views to be able to opine about him. The main reason he is performing above expected levels is because the ratings Ted Cruz enjoys are not actually enjoyable; they showcase him unfavorably. Of all the potential voters who responded to the poll, 49 percent had a negative opinion of Cruz, while only 38 percent approved of him.
Additionally, when the awareness issue regarding Beto O’Rourke was virtually resolved, he appeared to take the lead. When potential voters were informed about O’Rourke, his platform and his vow not to accept funds from PACs, the results transform those of the End Citizens United poll, he outperformed Cruz by two points. This means that disseminating all things Beto O’Rourke to the masses will be a critical step if his gains at the polls are to be thoroughly exploited.
A way to work toward accomplishing this goal is by seeking endorsements. These help raise the profile of a candidate and are effective in swaying voters in one direction or another. In December, the League of Conservation Voters (LCV) Action Fund officially endorsed Beto O’Rourke.
During the last quarter of last year, from his supporters and without the involvement of any PACs, O’Rourke raised $2.4 million. During the same time span, Cruz, who does accept contributions from PACs, only raised $1.9 million. Similar was the case during the second quarter on 2017, where O’Rourke too, outperformed Cruz.
Despite Beto O’Rourke’s advantage, superior has been overall Ted Cruz earnings because of his involvement with PACs. $7.3 million has he been able to obtain, compared to the O’Rourke earnings of $4.6 million.
Even if Beto O’Rourke takes a few or many pages from Cruz’s 2012 playbook which practically put Cruz in the Senator’s seat, and he seems to be, the overall sentiment is that Ted Cruz will be reelected.
— End Citizens United (@StopBigMoney) March 3, 2018